This generation can convert into hydrogen, requiring a new hydrogen pipeline network, or in the form of electricity, requiring rebuilding damaged transmission lines to allow for Ukraine’s full integration into the EU grid.ĥ. Due to Ukraine’s exceptional renewable resource potential, our model indicates that Ukraine can produce over 300 TWh of new renewable generation for the EU. Ukraine can become a unique contributor of both clean electricity and hydrogen to the rest of Europe, adding almost 100 GWs of new wind and solar by 2050, or almost 20% of today’s EU renewable capacity. Our incorporation of a physical representation of the gas system and new binding EU targets, as part of the 2023 data updates, enabled our modelling to show that the accelerated deployment of renewables, heat pumps, building retrofits, hydrogen, and biomethane, as well as some expansion of other pipeline imports and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), allows the EU and UK to rapidly reduce Russian natural gas imports to zero by no later than 2025.Ģ. Recent climate policy, including the Fit for 55 and REPowerEU, has laid the groundwork for the EU’s ability to quit Russian natural gas in the near term. Our first-of-a-kind analysis, using climate-specific capital costs for direct air capture (DAC) technologies based on hourly operations, finds DAC technology is a competitive option against other negative emissions technologies.ġ.Member State National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) revisions must incorporate data-based assumptions about the activities of surrounding regions.Some countries will max out the usage of their renewable resource potential, underscoring the importance of long-term planning for resource constraints and land availability.A technology-inclusive hydrogen strategy is integral to the EU’s decarbonisation plans.Encouraging flexibility (e.g., through Electricity Market Design reform and updating rate design to account for system-wide costs) is critical to the reliable and affordable operations of a clean power grid.It is imperative for the EU to facilitate near-term financing and RD&D support for innovative technologies necessary for long-term decarbonisation.The EU will need to build new infrastructure–electricity grids, hydrogen pipelines, and CO 2 pipelines–at unprecedented rates to sustain a clean energy economy, requiring faster siting, permitting, and financing of projects.Technology-inclusive policies decrease the EU’s dependence on energy imports.Ukraine can become a unique contributor of both clean electricity and hydrogen to the rest of Europe, adding almost 100 GWs of new wind and solar by 2050, or almost 20% of today’s EU renewable capacity.Recent climate policy, including the Fit for 55 and REPowerEU, has laid the groundwork for the EU’s ability to quit Russian natural gas in the near term.These events drastically impacted 2022’s energy landscape, with these effects reflected in 2023’s analysis. Meanwhile, in the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has prioritised stabilising the economy and combatting the energy crisis. With increased pressure to accelerate the energy transition while also ensuring energy sovereignty, EU policymakers have now finalised most files within the Fit for 55 package and the Commission's REPowerEU plan. Russia's invasion of Ukraine shed light on Europe's energy dependence on Russian fossil fuels, resulting in an energy supply and price crisis. What shaped CFE's 2023 Annual Decarbonisation Perspective? To learn more about the 2023 scenarios and sensitivities, see the appendix. The other four scenarios and seven sensitivities explore how different policy and implementation constraints impact the route to carbon neutrality. This makes it the most feasible, cost-effective pathway to net-zero. The Core pathway (one of five scenarios) is the least constrained due to its inclusion of all available clean energy technologies. This study provides annual insights into Europe's progress towards carbon neutrality by using cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate the latest changes in energy policy and technology costs. Every year, Carbon-Free Europe partners with Evolved Energy Research to create an Annual Decarbonisation Perspective (ADP) for the EU & UK.
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